Carson Bailey had every reason to believe 2026 would be the year everything came together.
The McLennan Community College left-hander was throwing the ball as well as he ever had, his command had taken a significant step forward and professional scouts were flocking to see one of the top junior college prospects in the MLB draft.
Then one play changed everything.
A comebacker on March 4 ended with Bailey chasing down a loose ball. As he planted, his left knee buckled.
“It was freaky,” Bailey said. “The ball got hit to me, hit off the end of my glove, and I went running for it. As I go down, my knee just went in and popped.”
The injury — a torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus — ended his sophomore season after just 23 2/3 innings. Yet it did little to diminish his standing among scouts.
Despite the setback, Bailey remains regarded as the top junior college prospect in the draft and still could hear his name called as early as the second round.
For Bailey, the injury was devastating, especially after the progress he made after transferring from Baylor to McLennan.
“I think the biggest thing for me was the command side,” Bailey said. “That was just figuring out how my body moves. I did a med-ball routine every time before I threw, and that helped me so much. I could just feel myself so much more on the mound.”
The results were evident.
Bailey’s fastball sat between 93 and 96 mph and touched 98 with heavy sink that generated ground balls. His breaking ball, thrown between 82 and 85 mph, flashed both slider and curveball characteristics, while his mid-80s changeup gave hitters a third quality offering.
He credits much of his development to the accountability required at the junior college level.
“When you get to a JUCO, you have all those resources, but you have to push yourself,” Bailey said. “You’ve got to push yourself to lift, do arm care, throw med balls and run every day. Working with our coaches and learning how my pitches work really helped me.”
The journey has included more than one major obstacle.
Bailey missed his junior year of high school after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That experience helped prepare him mentally for another lengthy rehabilitation process.
“Coming back from Tommy John and going through ACL surgery, it was kind of nice to already have done a full recovery before,” Bailey said. “I kind of knew what I was getting myself into.”
The early stages of rehab were difficult. Bailey spent weeks rebuilding strength in his leg before progressing to more intensive workouts. Now, he is back squatting, deadlifting and preparing for a return to competition.
According to Bailey, his surgeon believes he could resume throwing in August and be fully recovered by December.
That timeline has allowed scouts to remain optimistic about his long-term outlook.
At 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Bailey still has room to add strength. He believes his best baseball remains ahead of him.
“I’m hoping I can get to 220 and keep building,” Bailey said.
Bailey’s draft process has continued even without showcasing himself in games. He recently completed meetings with clubs, filled out scouting questionnaires and participated in the MLB Draft Combine.
“It’s a lot, but it’s part of it,” Bailey said. “It’s a once-in-a-lifetime thing, so you kind of have to soak it in.”
If he doesn’t sign professionally, Bailey has committed to Texas Tech, giving him a strong fallback option. But his focus remains on achieving the dream he has chased since childhood.
His mother recently found a school assignment from third grade asking what he wanted to be when he grew up.
The answer was simple: MLB player.
“I’ve never been more happy playing the sport I love,” Bailey said. “This is what I’ve wanted to do my whole life.”
Read more in-depth stories on top 2026 MLB draft prospects at Baseball Prospect Journal.
Dan Zielinski III has covered the MLB draft for 11 years. He has interviewed 613 of the top draft prospects in that period, including four No. 1 overall picks. Multiple publications, including Baseball America, USA Today, MLB.com, The Arizona Republic and The Dallas Morning News, have quoted his work, while he has appeared on radio stations as an “MLB draft expert.” Follow him on Twitter @DanZielinski3.
